My NBA conference semifinals predictions:
1st Seed Thunder Vs 5th Seed Mavericks:
As a Mavs fan, my heart tells me that they win this series in 5 games, but I think it’s more likely they get it done in 6 or 7 games. OKC has had an incredible regular season with Shai-Gilgeous Alexander playing at an MVP caliber level, and Chet Holmgren looking like the potential rookie of the year for a stretch of the season. Jalen Williams has also had an incredibly rare season in terms of how efficient he’s been especially in just his second season. However, it should be considered that OKC hasn’t had to deal with many of the injury struggles that other western conference powerhouses have. To me, this makes OKC having the 1 seed in a stacked western conference a little bit misleading. The reason I think Dallas wins this series comes down to the fact that they have the best player in the series, Luka Doncic, and arguably the best second option in the league right now with Kyrie Irving. Irving has just come off an unbelievable first round against the Clippers, capping off the series with a 28 point second half in game 6. The Mavs also matchup quite well with OKC, as they have a very solid pair of 3 & D players in Derrick Jones Jr. and P.J. Washington to guard Shai Gilgeous Alexander. These two will be able to rotate between guarding Jalen Williams and Gilgeous-Alexander. The Mavericks will also be able to have strong matchups for Chet Holmgren, with the dynamic rotation of Gafford and Lively, who are strong rebounders and lob threats that could possibly expose the Thunder’s biggest weakness, rebounding. My final reason is that they are the much more experienced team, and it’s Shai’s first time being the best player on a contending team, and also the first time of nearly their entire roster even making the playoffs.
2nd Seed Nuggets Vs 3rd Seed Timberwolves:
With the Timberwolves already being up 2-0, it’s truly hard to deny the defensive masterclasses that they’ve displayed against Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic through the first two games. Denver’s offense was seemingly unstoppable, and Minnesota has completely shifted that narrative as of right now. Even without defensive player of the year, Rudy Gobert, they held Denver to just 80 points, which is absolutely unreal. This marked the least amount of points they’ve scored in 6 years. For Minnesota, it’s all started with Anthony Edwards who’s quickly emerged into arguably a top 5 player in the league. He’s risen in the postseason again, averaging 32 a game so far in the playoffs, while also contributing to the historically good Minnesota defense. This defensive presence is possible due to the fact that they have a top rim protector in Rudy Gobert, but also much else. The Wolves are rich with excellent perimeter defenders like: Jaden McDaniels, Kyle Anderson, Nickeil-Alexander Walker, and Anthony Edwards, who have caused unimaginable havoc to an all-time offensive team in Denver. It’s hard to count out the reigning champion Nuggets, but after taking the first two games on the road I think Minnesota wins in 6-7 games.
1st Seed Celtics Vs 4th Seed Cavaliers:
Without Kristaps Porzingis, I still don’t see how this will be a competitive series. I envision Boston winning in 4-5 games, for a variety of reasons. First of all, Jarrett Allen’s availability for the series is not guaranteed, and they are going against the 2nd best defense in the league. The Celtics also boast the best offensive rating in NBA history, with a plethora of all-star level players. Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Derrick White, Jrue Holiday, and a deep bench even without Porzingis are more than a handful to deal with. Cleveland just had their struggles against Paolo Banchero, and now Boston has a more advanced and developed shot-creating version of Banchero, with Jayson Tatum. Jaylen Brown is another wing shot creator with mismatch level size, so Cleveland has some tough decisions to make in terms of wing/forward matchups. Boston also has the best defensive backcourt in basketball, with Jrue Holiday and Derrick White. This could cause Garland struggles and likely slow down the Cleveland offense that’s heavily reliant on Mitchell’s production. This makes me believe that this Celtics team is probably unbeatable for the Cavs, barring injuries. However, the Celtics are infamous for sometimes playing down to the level of opponents as seen in their loss against 8 seed Miami last year, which makes me think Cleveland could extend the series to 5 games. Overall, it’s just an unfortunate matchup for the Cavs after a tough 7 game series with Orlando.
2nd Seed Knicks Vs 6th Seed Pacers:
This is an interesting series with two completely different coaching styles. The Knicks under Tom Thibodeau have taken pride on defense, with a collection of players to help this style. They also have Jalen Brunson, who’s led the playoffs in scoring with 37 a game so far, despite questionable efficiency. Josh Hart has also risen in this postseason so far, granted he’s been playing just about every single minute of every single game. This Knicks team could be argued to have less overall starpower than Indiana, but there is something about their depth and comradery as a group that pushes them over the edge to win many close games. Indiana under Rick Carlisle has been a transcendent offense with three all star level players in Tyrese Haliburton, Pascal Siakam, and Myles Turner. However, Haliburton must step up his production and get back to at least a similar level he was at this winter. Siakam and Turner have been the best players for Indiana in the playoffs so far, which draws questions for how they’ll be able to take this series. I am high on Indiana still especially because of their depth with guys like T.J. McConnell, Aaron Nesmith, Andrew Nembhard, Obi Toppin, and Ben Sheppard, but I think New York takes this in 6 games.
