There are 9 teams remaining in the FBS that have a chance to compete for the NCAA national championship, and despite some ups and downs throughout the season for all of the teams, they all have realistic chances to make it to the Final Four (except maybe one, but don’t count them out). Here is what needs to happen for each team to head to the semi-finals.
Championship Games
SEC: 1. Georgia vs 8. Alabama
ACC: 4. Florida St vs 15. Louisville
BIG 10: 2. Michigan vs 16. Iowa
BIG 12: 7. Texas vs 18. Oklahoma St
Pac 12: 3. Washington vs 5. Oregon
- Georgia
With Win: They’re in. They maintain the #1 position in the rankings, and cruise to the CFP. With Loss: Georgia has to hope that the committee values season long dominance over a one game slip up. They most likely drop out of the top 3, and would need to hope for losses from Texas, Oregon, and Florida St to secure a spot in the Final 4.
- Michigan
With Win: They’re in by a long shot. They could look for a Georgia loss to bump themselves up to the top seed, but they are probably the safest of all the teams in the top 4, with a win over 6th ranked Ohio St keeping them from dropping behind the Buckeyes.
With Loss: They most likely still hold on. Michigan has a great resume with multiple wins against top 10 teams. With a loss, they would have to look for losses from Texas, Oregon, and most importantly Alabama to guarantee the 4th slot in the CFP. Even if some of those don’t happen, they most likely still get to play for a championship.
- Washington
With Win: They make it in, and they might jump Michigan too. Beating this stacked Oregon team at a neutral site will be incredibly difficult, but if they do, they have a chance to move ahead of Michigan for the 2 seed.
With Loss: They still have a good chance of holding on for the 4th spot. With losses from Florida St, Texas, and Alabama, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Washington in the semi-finals.
- Florida State
With Win: They have to make it. As overrated as I think that the Seminoles are, you can’t argue with the record they’ve maintained over the season. If they pull through in the ACC Championship game, they will have a 13-0 record with multiple ranked wins and a Power 5 Conference Championship. They will not be denied a chance to dance.
With Loss: I don’t think they make it in. With how they’ve been criticized throughout the year, a loss to Louisville would pretty much kill their chances of going to the CFP. The Florida State faithful would have to hope for losses from every team behind them, and even that probably wouldn’t keep Ohio St out of the playoffs. We have seen a team like this survive a loss, with TCU making the CFP in 2022 after losing the BIG 12, but they were a 2 seed already. FSU is a 4 seed, and have 5 other teams breathing down their necks to take their place. They have to win, or hope everyone else falls apart too.
- Oregon
With Win: They are in no question. Going into victory formation vs Washington would be one of the biggest wins of the year, and propel the Ducks into the CFP. They would most likely jump the Seminoles to face Michigan in the first round.
With Loss: They are out no question. The Ducks are the only team whose playoff hopes lie directly in their championship game result. If they lose they will have been beaten by Washington twice in the same season, and even if all the other teams below them fail to win their conferences, Ohio St would jump the Ducks and steal their place.
- Ohio State
Ohio St is the only school on this list that does not get to play in their conference championship game. Due to their loss to Michigan, they missed out on the BIG 10 Championship by 1 game. They still have strong wins — specifically against 10th ranked Penn St and 16th ranked Notre Dame — which help their case, but they still need a lot to happen. OSU needs upset mania to hit Championship week. Wins from Georgia, Washington, Louisville, and Oklahoma St are necessary for the Buckeyes to sneak into the picture. A loss from any of those teams tanks OSU’s chances to even finish the season in the Top 6.
- Texas
With Win: Texas is the first “Win and…” team. With their win over Oklahoma St, they also need to look for a collapse from the Seminoles and a blowout elsewhere. If Florida St throws away their playoff hopes and either the Ducks or the Huskies win big, the ‘Horns are gonna charge into that 4th spot, as long as no other upsets happen this week.
With Loss: Chances = 0%. 2 losses to Oklahoma and Oklahoma St proves which state owns the south. Texas will have to hope for a NY6 bowl instead.
- Alabama
With Win: Alabama still needs to hope for losses from Oregon and Texas, as they lost the head to head vs the Longhorns earlier this year. A Florida St loss would guarantee the Tide’s chances if it happens as well. But if I’m being completely honest, this most likely isn’t happening. But there’s always a chance for a long shot.
With Loss: Not happening. Bama would have 2 losses to 2 teams ranked ahead of them. They have nothing.
- Iowa
With Win: If Alabama is a long shot, the shot to get Iowa into the CFP would be a world record snipe. If Iowa defeats Michigan, they now have the biggest win of the season. They would have to do so in a dominant fashion, something around a 3-4+ score victory. After that, they need to hope that every single team ahead of them outside the top 3 loses. That means Alabama, Texas, Oregon, and Florida State all drop their games to their adversaries. With this, the Hawkeyes would need to hope that the committee values their Championship over Ohio State’s resume. If all that falls into place, Iowa may have a chance to sneak into the 4th slot of the CFP, and pull off being the first 2 loss team to make the playoffs in history.
With Loss: They’re more done than they already are, with 3 losses and no ranked wins. Probably don’t even get a NY6 Bowl either.
College Football Playoff Predictions
Final Rankings
- Georgia
- Michigan
- Oregon
- Florida St
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- Texas
- Washington
